Economic Simulator

 

Published in 2000, updated on November 20, 2014

 

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Simulator Quotes

Silver, N. (2012). "The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't." The Penguin Press, p. 9.

"Data-driven predictions can succeed - and they can fail. It is when we deny our role in the process that the odds of failure rise. Before we demand more of our data, we need to demand more of ourselves."

 

 

stoper

 

 

My Fragments - From My Personal Point of View

For the complete list, please see Tamari.

 

MF1:  Fractals relate to attractors like cobblestones in roads.   Added: 1 January 2000.

 

 

stoper

 

 

The Economic Cosmos - The Nest

Tamari attractor  The Economic Cosmos  The Nest

Tamari attractor ●  Economic Cosmos                      ●  The Nest         

 

The economic simulator equations

X' = (X - aY)cos(Z) - bYsin(Z),                         XO,     Output.    Conservative/Cremona

Y' = (X + cY)sin(Z) + dYcos(Z) ,                      YM,     Money.    Equations

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Z' = e + fZ + garctan{ [(1 - u)Y] / [(1 - i)X] }     ZP,      Pricing,   Feedback equation

Source: Ben Tamari (1997). "Conservation and Symmetry Laws and Stabilization Programs in Economics," p. 17. 

 

 

Comparison among 26 Chosen Countries 1960 - 2013.

The test is Roentgen-like, or MRI-like. The parameters (a-inertia, b-productivity, c-printing, d-adaptation) for each country were found through regressions. The exchange (e), the unemployment (u) and the interest rates (i) are multi-annual geometrical averages, and the indexation parameter (f = 0.01) and velocity of circulation/elasticity parameter (g = 1) are arbitrary and constants. Analysis and study of the variables Output, Money and Pricing (O, M, P) and invariables (a, b, c, d , e, f, g, u, i) of each country show its position in the Economic Cosmos; see the above figures.

To paraphrase Tolstoy, All healthy families (economies) resemble one another, but each pathological family (economy) is unhealthy in its own way.

 

Figure 1: The Trajectories of 26 Chosen Countries Together, Data 1960-2013.

 

Table 1: Rates of Change (%) of Growth o, Printing m, Inflation p, Theoretical Inflation p* and Deviation d ≡ p - p*, 1960 - 2013.

Country \ Coefficients

Growth  o

Printing  m

Inflation  p

Theoretical Inflation
 p*=m-o

Deviation d=p-p*
smaller than -5.0 is inflationary depression
greater than   5.0 is spillover inflation

Australia         

  4.22

   8.64

   5.03

   4.42

    0.61

Canada

  3.98

   9.32

   3.93

   5.35

  - 1.42

China  1981-2013

 10.04

 19.43

   5.57 

   9.39

  - 3.82

Colombia

  4.84

 20.65

 15.31

  15.81

  - 0.50

Denmark

  2.10

   8.99

   4.94

   6.89

  - 1.95

Euro Area 2000-2013

  1.00

  7.66

   2.07

   6.66

  - 4.59

India

  5.02

 13.23

   7.75

   8.20

  - 0.46

Indonesia

  5.28

 30.51

 27.43

 25.23

    2.20

Iran

  5.53

 19.12

 14.85

 13.59

    1.26

Israel

  5.99

 30.76

 24.18

 24.77

  - 0.59

Japan

  3.80

  9.77

   3.22

   5.97

  - 2.75

Mexico

  4.08

 25.20

 18.66

 21.11

  - 2.46

Morocco

  3.88

 10.87

  4.53

   6.98

  - 2.45

Norway

  3.16

 11.58

   4.73

   8.42

  - 3.69

Pakistan

  4.33

 13.48

   8.17

   9.15

  - 0.98

Peru

  3.51

 55.18

  50.65

 51.68

  - 1.03

Philippines

  4.13

 14.33

   8.97

 10.20

  - 1.23

Russia 1995-2013   3.61  30.09   17.84  26.48

  - 8.64  inflationary depression

Singapore

  7.49

 10.49

   2.69

   3.00

  - 0.31

South Africa

  3.15

 14.06

   8.33

 10.91

  - 2.58

South Korea

  6.58

 20.82

   8.44

 14.24

  - 5.80  inflationary depression

Sweden

  2.58

   7.77

   4.68

   5.18

  - 0.51

Switzerland

  2.18

   6.17

   2.71

   3.99

  - 1.27

Turkey

  4.49

 37.96

 31.19

 33.46

  - 2.27

United Kingdom

  2.21

 10.09

   5.76

   7.88

  - 2.12

United States

  3.06

   5.69

   3.97

   2.63

    1.34

Venezuela

  3.33

  27.53

 19.37

  24.19

  - 4.82

Average

  4.21

  17.75

 11.67

  13.55

  - 1.88

Source: Processed by the author from data in  IMF's  "International Financial Statistics, Yearbook 2014."

 

Table 2: The Coefficients a, b, c, d, J/E ad - bc (Jacobian/Ecometer) 1960 - 2013.

Country \ Coefficients

 Inertia a  

 Productivity b  

 Printing c  

 Adaptation d

Ecometer  J/E = ad - bc

Australia

  1.0164

    0.0002

    5.3212

  1.0348

  1.0507  

Canada

  1.0299

    0.0259

  - 0.0040

  1.1028

  1.1359 

China 1981-2013

  1.1247

  - 0.0562

    0.0760

  0.9954

  1.1237 

Colombia

  1.0376

  - 0.0109

    0.0019

  1.1099

  1.1516 

Denmark

  1.0295

  - 0.0531

    0.0097

  1.0269

  1.0577  

Euro Area 2000-2013

  1.0298

  - 0.0456

    0.0413

  0.9786

  1.0097  

India

  1.0807

  - 0.1174

    0.0110

  1.0747

  1.1628 

Indonesia 

  1.0415

    0.0559

    0.0092   

  1.0915

  1.1363 

Iran

  1.0280

    0.0200

    0.0346

  1.0176

  1.0454 

Israel

  1.0536

  - 0.1115

    0.0030

  1.1138

  1.1738 

Japan

  1.0413

- 36.861 pathological

    0.0000  

  1.0162

  1.0591 

Mexico

  1.0335

  - 0.0001

    1.9899  

  1.0984

  1.1354 

Morocco

  1.0411

    0.0000

  25.0592 pathological

  1.0383

  1.0812 

Norway

  1.0397

  - 0.0576

  - 0.0079

  1.1556

  1.2010

Pakistan

  1.0597

  - 0.0001

  - 5.2432  

  1.1614

  1.2304 

Peru

  1.0295

    0.0729

    0.0020

  1.1244

  1.1574 

Philippines

  1.0279

    0.1251

  - 0.0007

  1.1559

  1.1882 

Russia 1995-2013

  1.0439

  - 0.0307

     0.0254

  1.1219  

  1.1720

Singapore

  1.0728

  - 0.0561

  - 0.0010

  1.1312

  1.2135  

South Africa  

  1.0259

    0.0084

    0.0065   

  1.0840

  1.1121  

South Korea

  1.0848

  - 0.1678

    0.0254   

  0.9878

  1.0758  

Sweden

  1.0287

  - 0.0232

    0.0059

  1.0463

  1.0765 

Switzerland

  1.0198

  - 0.0035

  - 0.0057

  1.0859

  1.1074 

Turkey

  1.0389

    0.0033

    0.0221  

  1.1873

  1.2334 

United Kingdom

  1.0310

  - 0.0172

    0.0324

  1.0223

  1.0546

United States

  1.0354

  - 0.1068

  - 0.0062

  1.1259

  1.1651  

Venezuela

  1.0247

    0.0000

-189.248 pathological  

  1.6667

  1.7082 

Average "World"

  1.0426

  - 1.3855

  - 5.9941   

  1.1021

  1.1488

Source: Processed by the author from data in  IMF's  "International Financial Statistics, Yearbook 2014."

 

 

Table 3: The Coefficients: Exchange Rates e, Unemployment u, and Interest i, (%) 1960 - 2013.

Country \ Coefficients Exchange Rates (per US $) e   Unemployment u Interest (lending rate) i

Australia

    0.28      7.03  11.037

Canada

    0.11      8.27    7.71

China 1981-20013

    4.12      3.25    7.34

Colombia

   11.23    12.03  27.28

Denmark

 -  0.39      7.19    5.74

Euro Area

 -  2.77      9.24    2.23

India

    4.85      n.a.  14.09

Indonesia

    7.98      4.63  18.70

Iran

   10.92      n.a.  12.77

Israel

   20.16      8.09  72.04
Japan   - 2.43      3.73    5.29

Mexico

  13.97      3.21  15.11

Morocco

    0.96    13.29    7.37

Norway

  - 0.37      3.67    9.51

Pakistan

    5.94      5.65    7.86

Peru

  41.53      7.37 289.13

Philippines

    5.92      8.99   14.05
Russia 1995-20013    11.40    7.46   39.98

Singapore

 - 1.67      3.41    6.75

South Africa

   5.04    22.79     12.87

South Korea

    5.53      3.37    9.04

Sweden

   0.44      5.62    9.49

Switzerland

 - 2.88      2.82    4.63

Turkey

 26.03       8.95  38.34

United Kingdom

   1.10      6.76    7.50

United States (US$/SDR)

   0.79      6.11    7.50

Venezuela

   1.12    10.60  25.47

Source of data: Processed by the author from data of  "International Financial Statistics, YEARBOOK 2014",  IMF.

 

 

 

stoper

 

 

The Economic Simulator Guide

Eco3 software  - an application of the Tamari attractor - enables the study of a country's economy. The software performs a simulation of the country's economy: analysis, planning, prediction and comparison with other nations' economies, based on data in the International Financial Statistics (IMF) for the years 1960-2011, for 26 chosen countries.

 

The simulator was designed for five purposes:

To simulate the country's economy, for which we need a three dimensional space called the Economic Cosmos (the Nest/Tamari space),
 or an OUTPUT-MONEY- PRICING [O, M, P] space. The Nest/Tamari space includes three two-dimensional subspaces:
          Output-Money  - Keynes space    [O, M]
          Output-Pricing - Patinkin space   [O, P]
          Money-Pricing - Freidman space [M, P]

To compare the performance of different countries' economies according to the same measure and data scale.

To forecast a country's economy.

To investigate the possibility of the increasing/decreasing the quantity of money per output.

To practice the attractor tool, which is the engine of dynamic systems in nature.

 

How to Operate the Simulator

The default is the Economic Simulator, based on the Tamari Attractor in the Attractors menu. The first country to appear is Ecoland, an imaginary (ideal) country. After that comes a list of another 26 countries (the samples), the last one of which is the average of all 26 countries in the sample called World. The data is taken from "International Financial Statistics, Yearbook 2010."

You can choose another country on the list for simulation and practice. You can also compare different countries by changing the setting in the Accumulated Countries box. The best way to start comparing trajectories among countries is to put the number 3000 in the Iterations box.

If you don't recognize the attractor tool you can get an idea about it by choosing another attractor from the list on the Attractors menu (see also www.bentamari.com/attractors).

By changing parameters, operations, and initial conditions, you will get the feel, sensitivity and spirit of what it is all about.

The Eco method is described in the Ecometry and attractors  pages in the site http://www.bentamari.com.

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